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The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and
The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses John Baffes, M Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker 1 Approved for distribution by Kaushik Basu DISCLAIMER: Policy Research Notes represent the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent WBG views or policy The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and PDF
Box 1 The nature and causes of oil price volatility
The nature and causes of oil price volatility The nominal price of Brent (the international marker of oil) averaged 111/bbl during 2011-13 This was the highest of any 3-year period since 1860 in real terms During 2011-13 oil price volatility dropped to historical lows, shortly after experi-encing a record high during the great recession of 2008/09 This box (which draws heavily from Baffes PDF
UNDERSTANDING THE PLUNGE IN OIL PRICES: SOURCES AND
in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences , and Policy Responses John Baffes, M Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker Although the supply capacity of relatively high-cost and flexible producers, such as the shale oil industry in the United States, will need to adjust to lower prices, most of the underlying factors point to lower oil prices persisting over the medium-term, with PDF
What drives crude oil prices?
< lass="news_dt">09/01/2018 · Rising oil prices held down global oil consumption growth from 2005-2008, despite high economic growth 8 Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Thomson Reuters January 9, 2018 Changes in non-OPEC production can affect oil prices 9 Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Thomson Reuters January 9, 2018 Non-OPEC supply expectations indicate changes in market PDF
A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market
and causes prices to fall, so the expectation of high prices is irrational In our model, the high correlation between the price of oil and investment follows naturally from the rational response of forward-looking firms A persistent, positive demand shock raises the price of oil above its steady-state level As a result, it is profitable to invest in oil to expand production and take PDF
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
Later that year the path of oil prices steepened sharply, sending the nominal price to an all-time high of $145 a barrel on July 3, 2008, only to be followed by an even more spectacular price PDF
The Oil Price Crisis of - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Oil prices have fallen since the end of November 1997 well below a level of $18 per barrel for dated Brent which petroleum-exporting countries and oil companies have been recently inclined to consider as a kind of acceptable norm The fall in price has elicited rather speedily a producers' response which involved both OPEC and non-OPEC countries Exporting countries, and more generally, the PDF
Working PaPer SerieS
exchange rate by 0 28 on impact, whilst a weakening of the US dollar by 1 causes oil prices to rise by 0 73 We find that oil prices as well as the US dollar exchange rate also respond significantly to other asset price shocks Specifically, a 1 positive stock market shock increases oil prices by 0 7 An increase in risk and risk aversion (as proxied by the VIX) reduces oil prices but PDF
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The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and
The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses John Baffes, M Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker 1 Approved for distribution by Kaushik Basu DISCLAIMER: Policy Research Notes represent the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent WBG views or policy The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and PDF
Box 1 The nature and causes of oil price volatility
The nature and causes of oil price volatility The nominal price of Brent (the international marker of oil) averaged 111/bbl during 2011-13 This was the highest of any 3-year period since 1860 in real terms During 2011-13 oil price volatility dropped to historical lows, shortly after experi-encing a record high during the great recession of 2008/09 This box (which draws heavily from Baffes PDF
UNDERSTANDING THE PLUNGE IN OIL PRICES: SOURCES AND
in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences , and Policy Responses John Baffes, M Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Marc Stocker Although the supply capacity of relatively high-cost and flexible producers, such as the shale oil industry in the United States, will need to adjust to lower prices, most of the underlying factors point to lower oil prices persisting over the medium-term, with PDF
What drives crude oil prices?
< lass="news_dt">09/01/2018 · Rising oil prices held down global oil consumption growth from 2005-2008, despite high economic growth 8 Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Thomson Reuters January 9, 2018 Changes in non-OPEC production can affect oil prices 9 Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, Thomson Reuters January 9, 2018 Non-OPEC supply expectations indicate changes in market PDF
A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market
and causes prices to fall, so the expectation of high prices is irrational In our model, the high correlation between the price of oil and investment follows naturally from the rational response of forward-looking firms A persistent, positive demand shock raises the price of oil above its steady-state level As a result, it is profitable to invest in oil to expand production and take PDF
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
Later that year the path of oil prices steepened sharply, sending the nominal price to an all-time high of $145 a barrel on July 3, 2008, only to be followed by an even more spectacular price PDF
The Oil Price Crisis of - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Oil prices have fallen since the end of November 1997 well below a level of $18 per barrel for dated Brent which petroleum-exporting countries and oil companies have been recently inclined to consider as a kind of acceptable norm The fall in price has elicited rather speedily a producers' response which involved both OPEC and non-OPEC countries Exporting countries, and more generally, the PDF
Working PaPer SerieS
exchange rate by 0 28 on impact, whilst a weakening of the US dollar by 1 causes oil prices to rise by 0 73 We find that oil prices as well as the US dollar exchange rate also respond significantly to other asset price shocks Specifically, a 1 positive stock market shock increases oil prices by 0 7 An increase in risk and risk aversion (as proxied by the VIX) reduces oil prices but PDF
[PDF] STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? - EIA
STEO Supplement: Why are oil prices so high? During most of the 1990s, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price averaged close to $20 per barrel,
high oil price
[PDF] The Drivers of Oil Prices: The Usefulness and Limitations of Non
Like all raw materials, the rise in oil price stimulates oil production and slows the growth of oil demand This would cause oil prices to go down which in turn
WPM TheDriversofOilPricesTheUsefulnessandLimitationsofNonSturcturalModeltheDemandSupplyFrameworkandInformalApproaches BassamFattouh
[PDF] The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy
Largely driven by the rising demand from emerging markets and underinvestment in various commodity markets, the supercycle brought double-digit annual inflation
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[PDF] 4 Impact of High Oil Prices on African Economies
29 juil 2009 · socio-environmental effects of high and rising oil prices on African countries through, a doubling in the world price of oil leads to
Impact of High Oil Prices Oil and Gas in Africa
[PDF] Box 2 Explaining the drivers of the recent increase in oil price volatility
supply fundamentals can cause higher oil price volatility (see Chart A) oil prices can become more sensitive to changes in oil demand and supply as
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[PDF] Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: the role of
the factors behind them: for example, an unexpected increase in global oil supply will cause a small increase in global output Both realized and expected
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[PDF] Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
What caused this remarkable behavior of oil prices, and what were the increase in the price of crude would be associated with a 5 percent increase
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A Comparative Study on the Effects of Oil Price Changes on Inflation
domestic inflation in high oil dependency group are real exchange rate and higher oil price induces higher cost of production and this leads to
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[PDF] The Great Plunge in Oil Prices - World Bank Group
CAUSES OF THE SHARP DROP IN OIL PRICES AND OUTLOOK high oil prices of the 1970s made the use of such technology profitable During 1973-83, North
PRN Mar Oil Prices
[PDF] Assessing the factors behind oil price changes
one cause for the on-going rise in the price of motor gasoline and crude oil Other factors proposed to explain the sharp rise in oil prices include the
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[PDF] Peak oil demand and long-run oil prices - BP
likely to cause oil demand to stop increasing after over 150 years of almost is awash with oil, why should oil prices be significantly higher than the
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[PDF] Oil Price Shocks and Their Short- and Long-Term Effects on the
that rising oil prices preceded eight of the nine post-WWII economic recessions inflation is caused by cost shocks including oil-price increases,
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[PDF] "Causes of Inflation Across Main Oil Exporting Countries" By Jawan
Findings show that high inflation is associated with high oil price, low money growth, high exchange rate, and low population growth
KSP Paper Award Fall AL QENAIE Jawan
[PDF] The effects of changes in oil prices on the russian economy - Revista
29 avr 2019 · economic growth (although not so sharp in the oil exporting countries) Although high oil prices are expected to cause a positive economic
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[PDF] Impacts of increasing oil and gas prices on poverty and hunger
not to analyze or reproduce high oil price spikes, but instead we analyze the structural and possibly to a fall in non-oil exports caused by a rise in
[PDF] Oil Price Fluctuations and Oil Consuming Sectors - EconStor
In recent years, both the sharp increase in oil prices that began in 2001 and the caused the price of electricity to rise for the government, utilities,
[PDF] Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices? - Bank of Canada
There is no evidence that oil price shocks have caused more than a negligible increase in retail food prices in recent years Nor is there evidence for the
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[PDF] World Oil Demand and its Effect on Oil Prices
9 jui 2005 · The price of oil began rising in October 2003 and reached record levels in that the growth of demand has been unexpectedly high causing
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[PDF] changes in fuel oil prices in turkey: an estimation of the inflation
crude oil prices has increased expectations of a possible inflationary Study results revealed that a 1 increase in fuel oil prices caused the consumer
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[PDF] Impact of World Oil Prices on an Energy Exporting Economy
Increased demand caused diversification of the supply side, and from the late-1990s OPEC was no longer the main oil exporter (Figure 2)2
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[PDF] 231-014 Kapusuzoglu_Ulusoyindd
the high energy prices may increase the amount of the energy content crops, which will cause high food prices As a result, crude oil prices are the key
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Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? - Oxford Academic
The potential price pressures from rising oil prices are not limited to the production stage of food commodities Higher energy costs may also raise the cost of
economicpolicy
[PDF] Discussion Paper - Deutsche Bundesbank No 60/2020 Global oil
30 nov 2020 · foreign shocks that cause higher oil prices including adverse oil supply shocks have a positive impact on manufacturing relative to services
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[PDF] Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation in Nigeria
year, while a fall in oil prices leads to a 29 percent increase in inflation Bala and Chin (2018) estimates the asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on
[PDF] Oil Prices and the New Climate Economy
After several years at high levels, oil prices dropped by more than half between June 2014 and January 2015 This realignment has caused companies and
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WORKING PAPER - IIASA PURE
giving the forecasts of oil prices a high uncertainty other hand, an increase in oil demand would cause higher OPEC oil production and price increases
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[PDF] THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN
an increase in oil price leads to low industrial production and high inflation Within a new framework, Scholtens and Yurtsever (2012) conducted a study of
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[PDF] Do Higher Oil Prices Still Benefit Texas? - Federal Reserve Bank of
oil prices and benefiting with high oil prices Texas Employment Tracks Oil Prices in 1970s and 1980s oil price shocks and other causes in each
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[PDF] 3 – The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy - PwC
6 The increase in demand for supplier inputs also leads to an increase in input prices Page 7 UK Economic Outlook March 2015 increased competition from
ukeo oil prices march
[PDF] Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: - World Trade Organization
the 2003-08 increase in the real price of oil was caused by fluctuations in economy and adverse effects on economic growth working through higher oil
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[PDF] The Role of Government Climate Policy in an Oil Price Shock
electricity production from natural gas to coal which leads to increased emissions of CO2 With a climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in
[PDF] Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy
Overall, an oil-price increase leads to a transfer of income from importing to exporting countries through a shift in the terms of trade The magnitude of the
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[PDF] The Evaluation of the USD Currency and the Oil Prices: A Var Analysis
vis-à-vis dollar followed by a subsequent high of the crude oil price, suggests on a Moreover, the devaluation of U S dollar causes a great impact
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[PDF] The impact of oil price shocks on selected Kazakhstan's
Kazakh economy on oil price fluctuations increased since the previous oil price 2016) showed that „higher macroeconomic uncertainty causes higher oil
Akhmedov
[PDF] Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade? - CORE
25 jan 2012 · This paper examines whether higher oil price volatility causes a reversal evidence is found that higher oil price fluctuations cause a
[PDF] The economic consequences of rising oil prices - International
$10 rise in the price per barrel, from $20 to $30, causes an American GDP deviation ranging between about 0 5 to over 5 5 , from the reference level
[PDF] OIL PRICES ONCE AGAIN: THE LINK TOWARDS MIDDLE EAST
economy due to high average growth rates of developing countries are argued to be the main reasons for the rising oil prices This study aims to clarify the
Oil Prices Once Again
The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes
Consequences
and The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes
Consequences
and Policy Responses John Baffes
M Ayhan Kose
Franziska Ohnsorge
and Marc Stocker 1 Approved for distribution by Kaushik Basu DISCLAIMER: Policy Research Notes represent the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent WBG views or policy The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and 11003);" style="color:blue;cursor:pointer;font-size:1.1em;">PDF
Box 1 The nature and causes of oil price volatility
The nature and causes of oil price volatility The nominal price of Brent (the international marker of oil) averaged 111/bbl during 2011-13 This was the highest of any 3-year period since 1860 in real terms During 2011-13 oil price volatility dropped to historical lows
shortly after experi-encing a record high during the great recession of 2008/09 This box (which draws heavily from Baffes 9464);" style="color:blue;cursor:pointer;font-size:1.1em;">PDF
UNDERSTANDING THE PLUNGE IN OIL PRICES: SOURCES AND
in Oil Prices: Causes
Consequences
and Policy Responses John Baffes
M Ayhan Kose
Franziska Ohnsorge
and Marc Stocker Although the supply capacity of relatively high-cost and flexible producers
such as the shale oil industry in the United States
will need to adjust to lower prices
most of the underlying factors point to lower oil prices persisting over the medium-term
with 64172);" style="color:blue;cursor:pointer;font-size:1.1em;">PDF
What drives crude oil prices?
< lass="news_dt">09/01/2018 · Rising oil prices held down global oil consumption growth from 2005-2008
despite high economic growth 8 Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
Thomson Reuters January 9
2018 Changes in non-OPEC production can affect oil prices 9 Sources: EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
Thomson Reuters January 9
2018 Non-OPEC supply expectations indicate changes in market 68242);" style="color:blue;cursor:pointer;font-size:1.1em;">PDF
A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market
and causes prices to fall
so the expectation of high prices is irrational In our model
the high correlation between the price of oil and investment follows naturally from the rational response of forward-looking firms A persistent
positive demand shock raises the price of oil above its steady-state level As a result
it is profitable to invest in oil to expand production and take 55347);" style="color:blue;cursor:pointer;font-size:1.1em;">PDF
Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08
Later that year the path of oil prices steepened sharply
sending the nominal price to an all-time high of $145 a barrel on July 3
only to be followed by an even more spectacular price 52997);" style="color:blue;cursor:pointer;font-size:1.1em;">PDF
The Oil Price Crisis of - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Oil prices have fallen since the end of November 1997 well below a level of $18 per barrel for dated Brent which petroleum-exporting countries and oil companies have been recently inclined to consider as a kind of acceptable norm The fall in price has elicited rather speedily a producers' response which involved both OPEC and non-OPEC countries Exporting countries
and more generally
the 45047);" style="color:blue;cursor:pointer;font-size:1.1em;">PDF
Working PaPer SerieS
exchange rate by 0 28 on impact
whilst a weakening of the US dollar by 1 causes oil prices to rise by 0 73 We find that oil prices as well as the US dollar exchange rate also respond significantly to other asset price shocks Specifically
a 1 positive stock market shock increases oil prices by 0 7 An increase in risk and risk aversion (as proxied by the VIX) reduces oil prices but 34711);" style="color:blue;cursor:pointer;font-size:1.1em;">PDF